Our positioning: Uncertainties remain going into the new year

As an eventful year draws to a close, there is little expectation of it going quietly. On the contrary, a host of events continue to preoccupy the financial markets. As expected, the new Trump administration has the markets on tenterhooks. The appointment of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as new US Treasury Secretary last month initially calmed the financial markets. A financial expert seen as market-friendly, Bessent’s appointment provided some reassurance to the tense bond markets. Following the election of Donald Trump, there were growing concerns about an out-of-control budget deficit, driving yields to maturity on 10-year US government bonds to over 4.4 per cent. They have since fallen back slightly to around 4.2 percent.

The Trump administration continues to keep the financial markets on edge. Against this backdrop, the new year looks set to start with a great deal of uncertainty, which is why we prefer a neutral equity allocation and are taking profits on emerging market equities.

Neutral equity allocation going into the new year

There was however renewed unease in response to the latest threats by the US President-elect towards the BRICS group of emerging economies, threatened by Trump with punitive tariffs of 100 percent if they fail to clearly commit to the US dollar as their reserve currency. Increasingly critical of the US currency, the BRICS countries are endeavouring to create their own reserve currency with a view to reducing their dependence on the US dollar. In response to Trump's threats, stock markets in these countries posted below-average performance, with only the Chinese equity markets making any significant gains. The upturn in Chinese share prices is likely to have been driven in particular by renewed hopes of fiscal policy support measures provided by China’s government. But given in particular the fact that Donald Trump currently sees punitive tariffs as an all-purpose weapon to steer negotiations in his favour, uncertainties on the financial markets have increased in many respects and look set to continue into the new year. While there are opportunities in conditions like these, there are also risks, which is why prefer a neutral equity allocation overall. We are therefore taking profits on emerging market equities and neutralizing our overweighted position in this investment.

Scepticism remains towards tech stocks

By contrast, the US equity markets, and tech stocks in particular, continued to perform well. As it continued to rise, however, the US stock market also became even more expensive. We are sceptical towards this development. The past has shown that years where US stock markets are relatively expensive are followed by years with below-average returns. Although the US economy remains robust, it cannot maintain above-capacity production permanently. Another challenge is persistently high core inflation, which, at 3.3 percent, has barely fallen this year. This means the likelihood of a slowdown in both the economy and the stock markets remains high. We're therefore maintaining our underweighted position in the expensive US stock market in favour of global and cheaper value stocks.

Performance of asset classes

Currencies1 month in CHFYTD in CHF1 month in LC YTD in LC
Currencies
EUR
1 month in CHF
-1,1%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF

0,1%

1 month in LC Local currency
-1,1%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
0,1%
Currencies
USD
1 month in CHF
2,3%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
5,1%
1 month in LC Local currency
2,3%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
5,1%
Currencies
JPY
1 month in CHF
3,4%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
-1,6%
1 month in LC Local currency
3,4%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
-1,6%

Equities1 month in CHFYTD in CHF
1 month in LC YTD in LC
Equities
Switzerland
1 month in CHF
-0,9%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
7,8%
1 month in LC Local currency

-0,9%

YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
7,8%
Equities
World
1 month in CHF
7,9%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
29,4%
1 month in LC Local currency
5,4%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
23,1%
Equities
USA
1 month in CHF
9,7%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
35,8%
1 month in LC Local currency
7,2%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
29,2%
Equities
Eurozone
1 month in CHF
0,3%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
10,1%
1 month in LC Local currency
1,4%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
10,0%
Equities
United Kingdom
1 month in CHF
2,4%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
16,8%
1 month in LC Local currency
2,1%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
11,5%
Equities
Japan
1 month in CHF
7,4%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
16,8%
1 month in LC Local currency
3,8%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
18,7%
Equities
Emerging markets
1 month in CHF
-0,3%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
15,4%
1 month in LC Local currency
-2,5%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
9,8%

Fixed income1 month in CHFYTD in CHF
1 month in LC YTD in LC
Fixed income
Switzerland
1 month in CHF
1,4%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
5,8%
1 month in LC Local currency

1,4%

YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
5,8%
Fixed income
World
1 month in CHF
2,5%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
5,6%
1 month in LC Local currency
0,1%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
0,5%
Fixed income
Emerging markets
1 month in CHF
4,0%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
13,7%
1 month in LC Local currency
1,6%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
8,2%

Alternative investments1 month in CHFYTD in CHF
1 month in LC YTD in LC
Alternative investments
Swiss real estate
1 month in CHF
3,4%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
17,3%
1 month in LC Local currency

3,4%

YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
17,3%
Alternative investments
Gold
1 month in CHF
-1,2%.
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in CHF
33,9%
1 month in LC Local currency
-3,4%
YTD Year-to-date: since the start of the year in LC Local currency
27,4%

Our positioning – Swiss focus

LiquidityTAA old TAA new
Positioning
Liquidity
CHF
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
1.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
1.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
Liquidity
Money market CHF
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
0.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Underweighted
Liquidity
Money market JPY
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Overweighted
Liquidity
Total
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
3.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
5.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral

Equities
TAA old TAA new
Positioning
Equities
Switzerland
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
25.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
25.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Overweighted
Equities
USA
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
10.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
10.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Underweighted
Equities
Eurozone
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Underweighted
Equities
United Kingdom
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
Equities
Japan
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
Equities
Emerging markets ex China
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
7.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
5.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
Equities
China
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
Equities
World value
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Overweighted
Equities
Total
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
52.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
50.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral

Fixed incomeTAA old TAA new
Positioning
Fixed income
Switzerland
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
15.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
15.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Underweighted
Fixed income
World
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
10.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
10.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
Fixed income
Emerging markets
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
6.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
6.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
Fixed income
US government bonds 
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
2.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Overweighted
Fixed income
Total
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
33.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
33.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral

Alternative investmentsTAA old TAA new
Positioning
Alternative investments
Swiss real estate
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
7.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
7.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
Alternative investments
Gold
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
5.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
5.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
Alternative investments
Total
TAA old Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
12.0%
TAA new Tactical asset allocation: short- to medium-term positioning
12.0%
Positioning Positioning compared to long-term investment strategy
Neutral
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